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Gerald provided some insightful comments for “Who Killed the Electric Car? Revisited“, so he was asked to come back and write a full article.  If you are interested in contributing an article to the EnergyDSM.com community, click here.

Electric Vehicles (EVs) are coming, but they have several technological hurdles before they become common on the road.  Today’s EVs aren’t practical for the average consumer, and several components need more development.  Here is a list of major technological barriers, based upon what you can buy today.

1.  Electricity Storage or Generation

Onboard power is the biggest limitation – batteries for most EV designs.  There are several different battery chemistries, but some suffer from short range while others are not easily available.

Lead Acid batteries are easy to buy, but not all of them are suitable for EVs.  They must be matched and then carefully conditioned to yield best service.  They are heavy and don’t provide a lot of range.  Many car and light truck chassis must be reinforced before they can carry enough batteries to obtain usable range, and the weight vs. range trade-off peaks out around 40 miles per charge.

Nickel-Metal Hydride batteries are lighter and yield better range, but are tightly rationed.  They tend to self-discharge and deteriorate during storage.   They must be conditioned to produce best service, and cannot tolerate over-charging.  More development will probably wait until the current patent expires in another year or so.

Lithium-Ion batteries are available in several chemistries, are even lighter and provide greater ranges.  However, they are expensive and require careful monitoring and charging.  They can be ruined by small amounts of overcharging or overdrawing, and by temperature.  Lithium-Ion batteries need better quality control.  They are not easily available in large packs that produce voltages high enough for EVs.

All current battery technologies share several problems.  Using household current, it takes 6 hours or longer to recharge them every time they’re used.  Range decreases by as much as half during cold weather.  Battery packs are made of many cells where one cell or connection failure can disable the vehicle.  Battery packs also have difficulty supplying auxiliary loads such as headlights, heating, air conditioning, power brakes, power steering and entertainment systems.  Most packs require replacement after only a few years at high cost.

It may be possible to generate electricity by another method.  Many people tout photovoltaic cells, but those produce much less power than motors consume – the amount of cells that can fit on a vehicle will take several days to recharge a battery pack.  Others, such as fuel cells, require their own extensive development.  Super capacitors can provide quick energy bursts for going up hills or passing other cars, but they are not yet substitutes for batteries because their discharge is measured in seconds – not tens of minutes as needed for EV trips.

2.  Motors

Most motors powerful enough for an EV are designed for industrial applications, running at constant speeds and loads for days.  EVs need motors that run at variable speeds and loads, for hours.  Industrial motors can be used in EVs, but not at their best efficiency.   They are generally heavier than necessary and not sealed against the environment.  Other motors, such as forklift, can be used, but they are not designed for the higher speeds and sustained loads of EVs.  Industrial motors are designed for high power grid voltages with unwavering duty cycles, not the falling power of discharging battery packs.

There are several interesting new motor designs in laboratories.  Among them are axial flux permanent magnet motors and multiphase DC motors.  The challenge is to get them into fleet testing and then production.

3.  Electronics

Essentially, motor controllers are variable power supplies.  Most of today’s mobile controllers are low frequency analog designs that generate a lot of heat and are not hardened for the automotive environment.   Power devices used to pass battery current need lower internal resistance, higher current capacity and easier control.  Motor controllers are starting to include microprocessors, but they are just scratching the surface of decision power and of communications busses.  Many controllers need to be trained to best utilize the motors and battery packs connected to them.

Battery chargers and battery management systems need to be better matched to battery chemistries.  Most battery chemistries cannot tolerate unattended trickle charging like we use on automobile starting batteries.  Battery cells within packs are very sensitive to small differences in their own internal chemistries as well as heating effects from surrounding cells, requiring sophisticated monitoring and dynamic charge loading.  Since batteries are rapidly evolving, chargers and monitors will have to keep up.

Regenerative braking / battery recharging systems need to develop more power while minimizing physical drag.  Braking effects are effective today if controlled correctly, but regenerative power is too small to add significant range.  Drivers must be retrained to utilize regenerative braking / recharging effectively.

4.  Infrastructure

Charging stations must be everywhere, particularly while battery packs require frequent recharging.  Stations must handle high charging currents.  Many homes require wiring changes to accommodate charging.  Stations need to provide a significant amount of recharging in about the same time that it takes to refuel a gasoline vehicle.  Travelers need assurance that during long trips they can find recharging power and that the trip will not be unduly extended while awaiting recharging.  The power grid may need upgrades, even if most people restrict recharging to late night hours.

Swappable battery packs will be feasible if they become more compact, accessible and lighter.  Battery chemistry and management must become bulletproof so consumers are assured that replacement packs are as good as the packs they replace.  The industry needs to standardize connectors for battery pack connections and charging.

5.  Price

EVs are mostly touted as short commuters.  That makes 4-cylinder compact cars their main competition, and those cars list for under $20,000.   Price estimates for EVs are at least double that.  Consumers may be willing to pay a premium for an EV, due to the difference in fuel costs, but will they pay double?  The first challenge is to get production costs down so EVs can compete directly on price.  The second challenge is to get comparable range between EVs and 4-cylinder cars.  It can be argued that 40 miles is enough range for daily commuting, but when consumers compare EVs to gasoline cars they realize that 40 miles is a short leash.

Battery packs must also come down in price since they are only expected to last a few years, and because they are the most expensive component in an EV.  Prices for competing electricity storage or generation products are as high – if not higher – than batteries.

Can these technological barriers be overcome?  Certainly, given enough time and resources.  The biggest hurdle will be public acceptance of our current technological limitations, as well as learning how to use and care for their EVs.

At the Detroit Auto Show these past two weeks, many manufacturers have been showing off their new electric vehicles.  There is finally some healthy competition in this space as the world’s largest manufacturers are getting involved.

As with any new technology, good branding is the key to quick success.  Branding is especially important in the auto business because a car is one of the most important purchases we make.  Since the name of an electric vehicle model will have a significant impact on its initial uptake in the market, I’d like to share some of the good, the bad and the ugly of electric car branding.

The Good

Toyota is in a great position in the electric vehicle market even though they have not been as aggressive as Nissan or General Motors (GM).  Toyota has the luxury of waiting to see what the competition does because the Prius has been so successful.  As soon as electric cars start gaining momentum, all Toyota has to do is come out with a plug-in Prius.

All they have to say is, “It’s a Prius with a plug,” and millions of them will sell.  Since “Toyota” is pretty much  synonymous with “quality” and “Prius” with “alternative vehicle”, brand equity allows the company to wait for the right moment.  When that moment comes, we’ll be seeing plenty of plug-in Priuses on the road because of the Prius name.

The Bad

The Chevy Volt is GM’s big splash in the electric vehicle market.  The Volt is a plug-in hybrid, which means that it runs on battery power for about 30 miles and then has a gasoline engine as backup.  As long as there is a gas station nearby, you will not end up stranded on the side of the road, just like with a conventional car.

This distinction is important because market research that I have been a part of has shown that the number one concern in the minds of consumers is lack of vehicle range.  Given battery storage limitations and lack of infrastructure, consumers are worried about being stranded in the middle of nowhere without a charging station nearby.

When we hear the word “Volt,” we think of electricity.  When we think of electricity and cars, we think of being stranded in the middle of nowhere.  If those are the word associations that consumers are making, why would GM call it the Volt?  All they are doing is selling the car short because it also runs on gasoline.  You are no more likely to be stranded in the middle of nowhere with a Volt than with a conventional car.  It is going to take a while for consumers to make this realization, so the Volt is going to have a tough time at first because of its name.

The Ugly

Upstart Chinese manufacturer BYD Auto has been making a lot of the headlines lately, especially since Warren Buffet bought a 10% stake in the company.  I know the Chinese are not known for product naming, but BYD’s plug-in hybrid name is not bad, it’s plain ugly.  It’s called the BYD F3DM.  Excuse me?  Is that your car or your license plate number?

And in case you are not interested in the BYD F3DM, you could opt for the all-electric BYD E6 instead.

Final Thoughts

Whether you like it or not, branding has a huge impact on consumer decision making, especially when it comes to purchasing a vehicle.  It would be nice if we all just purchased the greenest car on the market.  But with a $10,000+ price premium for electric vehicles, only the super rich can afford to risk money on an untested brand.

So if you are wondering why Toyota has not been that aggressive in the electric vehicle space, think of how much brand equity they have with the Prius name.  If you are wondering why the Volt will take a while to reach its market potential, think of how confused consumers will be about the Volt that also runs on gasoline.  If you are wondering why an auto company would name its cars after a licence plate number, don’t ask me.  Maybe Warren Buffet would be able to tell you.

In the famous 2006 documentary film “Who Killed the Electric Car?”, many suspects are found guilty.  The filmmakers place some blame on each of the following parties for the supposed death of electric vehicles:

• Oil companies
• Car companies
• U.S. government
• U.S. consumers
• California Air Resources Board
• Hydrogen fuel cell

It is important to revisit this film because it lays out some convincing arguments, but unfortunately, many of them are misleading.  As electric vehicles become a truly viable option, we need to stop pointing fingers and move on.  We need to focus on working together to create sound strategies and public policy instead of placing blame.

After all, the General Motors EV1 (which is supposedly killed in the film) was never a truly viable option for the average consumer.  However, the filmmakers want you to believe that the EV1 was the next Model T.  They try to convince the viewer by interviewing a few EV1 lessees who have undying love for their EV1s.  The film suggests that if only the oil companies and other guilty parties hadn’t killed the EV1, everyone in America would own one along with an equally undying love.

Unfortunately for the filmmakers, the opinion of a few early adopters does not reflect public opinion.  In fact, the consulting firm I work for did a representative survey in 2001 that showed that extremely few Californians were willing to purchase an EV1.  At the time, the survey showed that there was substantial interest in this thing called the hybrid though.  Guess what took off in the market?

Don’t believe me?  Don’t believe the survey?  Well, then just take a look at other countries around the globe.  Not a single country has experienced significant market penetration of electric vehicles.

I am not saying that it will not happen.  I actually have a more optimistic view than many of the publicly available market projections for electric vehicles.  We just need to be patient and realize that a technological shift does not happen overnight.

So who killed the electric car?  Nobody did.  A truly viable electric vehicle has not even been born yet.  The EV1 was just a toy for the super rich, not an electric car.  Once the price comes down and quality improves, an electric vehicle will finally be born.  As long as we work together to create sound strategies and public policy, the newborn electric vehicle will have so much momentum that nobody will be able to kill it.

Whether they admit it or not, major car manufacturers are preparing for the inevitable transition to electric vehicles in the United States.  The charging infrastructure will take a while to develop, but when it does, these companies want to have strong electric vehicle brands in place.

Even luxury brands BMW and Mercedes are aggressively preparing.  BMW touts clean diesel for its luxury cars, but through its MINI brand it has begun field testing an electric vehicle called the MINI E. Daimler (manufacturer of Mercedes) is using its Smart brand to develop an electric vehicle called the Smart ED.  These companies have learned from the lack of success of luxury hybrid vehicles and are developing electric vehicles through their subcompact vehicle brands.

The table below lists the top 15 car manufacturers in the U.S. by number of vehicles sold in 2009.  Of the 15 companies, 11 have already identified specific electric vehicle models that will be coming out in the next few years.  Five have manufacturer’s websites dedicated to these electric vehicles.  The biggest question mark is Honda, which has yet to release information on a specific electric vehicle model.  Considering how its competitors are preparing, it would not be surprising if Honda came out with some news relatively soon.

Take a look at the manufacturers’ websites.  The Nissan Leaf looks really cool.  The MINI E and Smart ED look just like the ones that you see on the road today.  Some people say that the Chevy Volt looks just like a Malibu, but others claim that it was modeled after the Prius.  Which electric vehicle would you be interested in?

Car Manufacturers Ranked by Number of Vehicles Sold in the U.S. in 2009